Week 10 2019: Playoff Scenarios

Welp. It's been a while huh? Between having a son (which is awesome) actually having a lot of work to do (surprisingly not that bad) and trying to go to the gym (also surprisingly not that bad) I keep finding myself running out of time to write commentary, or to watch the games on weekends. I might not even have time to play Pokemon when it comes out tomorrow...

..

..

nah, I'm sure that'll work itself out.

Survivor Standings

We have not 1, not 2, but 3 weeks of survivor standings to update. Lets get going

In week 8 : Wampus Cats (168.54) eliminated BurntOrangeMan (77.30) on the backs of Aaron Jones and Latavius Murray, who combined for 70+

In week 9: Sudowoodo Gang (138.74) eliminated Lucky Charms (90.12) thanks to the return of Melvin Gordon and Tyreek Hill

And here are the week 10 results

• Wampus Cats : 162.88 ⚔️⚔️⚔️
• zcub : 127.62
• BriasaurusRex : 116.02
• Sudowoodogang : 115.10⚔️
• GrandPooba : 88.22 ⚔️
• Lucky Charms : RIP⚔️💀
• BurntOrangeMan : RIP💀
• lilmoonee : RIP💀
• cfisher1991 : RIP💀
• Country Roads, Take Mahomes : RIP💀

Wampus Cats earned their 3rd (out of 6) elimination of the season thanks to another multi-TD game from Aaron Jones and Baltimore's defense dominating the corpse of the Cincinnati Bengals. Grand Pooba was let down by their role players, getting 0s from both their Kicker and Defense positions.

🎶Made of our Future Foe Scenarios🎶

Playoff Scenarios

With 3 weeks left, I think it's time to look at who can realistically end up in the playoffs and bye week spots, and how they can get there.

• Locked in, fighting for BYEs: Lucky Charms and Zcub. 
• At 7-3 These teams both sport a 3 game lead on 7th place, meaning that even if they were to lose their final 3 games, none of the teams outside the playoffs could jump them without also bridging a 130+ point gap.
• Example: Even if Sudowoodo Gang wins out and Zcub loses out, he has to outscore him by ~40 points per week over that timeframe to jump him
• Neither of these teams are really safe at all in regards to their bye week position.
• Lilmoonee and BurntOrangeMan both trail by 1 game, and can catch them regardless of points.
• WampusCats trails by 2 games but has a point advantage on both, needing to only tie their records to pass them
• Strong Shot at Playoffs: Lilmoonee and BurntOrangeMan
• At 6-4 These teams have a 2 game lead on 7th, and a smaller point gap (BOM is separated from Sudowoodo Gang by 31 points, easily changeable in 1 week). They would have to lose 2 or 3 of their final games to get knocked out though.
• On the Edge: Wampus Cats, Briasaurus Rex.
• While both teams are 5-5, Wampus cats owning the highest score in the league puts them in very different positions. Rex can lose his spot to 7th in a single week with a big enough loss, while Wampus Cats must lose 2/3 to be realistically be jumped.
• Both of these teams also still have a realistic, if unlikely shot at a BYE week.
• Clinging to Life: Sudowwodogang, Country Road, Take Mahomes
• Both of these teams are 1 game out of playoffs at 4-6, but also have a bit of an uphill battle to climb in points. Country Roads is ~120 points behind 6th, while Sudowoodo is back about 50.
• For both teams it's more likely that they make their way in outright with a better record, which requires them to pick up 2 games on Wampus Cats or Briasaurus Rex
• Longshots: Funky Monkeys and cfisher1991
• At 3-7, these teams can make the playoffs without tiebreakers if A) they win out and B) Wampus Cats or Briasaurus Rex lose out. This is actually good news for them because it means they don't have to necessarily bridge the 100 point gap in total scoring to win a tiebreaker.
• On the other hand, if they only gain 2 games on 6th they will need to outscore that team by ~30 points per week.

Week 11 Matchups with Major Playoff Implications

While all the games matter, Take Mahomes v Briasaurus Rex is by far the most important to playoff contention. A loss for Rex opens the door for both of our Clinging to Life teams, while a win knocks Mahomes out into the Longshots category. With 2 players on BYE and David Johnson potentially taking a backseat to Drake it's going to up an uphill battle for Take Mahomes.

Pickup of the Week

Ronald Jones - Wampus Cats. It has taken almost the whole season, but Bruce Arians seems to have finally decided on the Bucs starting RB. Or at least until next week. We'll see, but this seems like a pickup that could have big potential down the stretch.